From the supply side, under the influence of force majeure factors this week, short-term supply has tightened, and an uptrend in organosilicon is already set. However, the operating rates of other monomer manufacturers still need close attention. Currently, various factories still have pre-sold orders pending delivery. After prices surged on July 21, some manufacturers even limited new orders. It is expected that further price increases will follow to stimulate downstream and midstream confidence in stockpiling. In terms of operating rates, production capacity in Shandong has tightened significantly, with operating rates likely to drop below 70%. Driven by "buying on rallies" this week, if order intake by monomer manufacturers continues to improve, some previously reduced-load facilities may adjust their operations. In the short term, monomer manufacturers face little pressure to ship goods, and recent focus should remain on changes in monomer production capacity in Shandong.
On the cost side, uncertainty in raw materials is evident. After the cancellation of electricity price subsidies in Xinjiang, major factories have not yet restarted production. Although production in the southwest region continues to resume during the wet season, the increment in the southwest is less than the decrement in the northwest, leading to significant uncertainty in capacity expectations. As of July 21, the main futures contract si2509 closed at 9,260 yuan/ton, up 4.99% or 440 yuan in a single day, breaking the 9,000-yuan mark. Spot prices followed suit, with chemical-grade 421# metallic silicon quoted at 9,500-10,400 yuan/ton, with local increases of 100-200 yuan. Overall, driven by policies, industrial silicon has performed strongly, but the structural imbalance between supply and demand has not been fundamentally alleviated, and transaction focus remains on rigid demand.